What the F is up with the COP28 outcome?

COP28 just concluded in what the public is calling a “historic” outcome for its first-ever mention of a “transition away from fossil fuels.” But how ambitious is it, really? We break it down for you below:

1. NOT FULL – Loopholes you could drive a coal truck through
   Yes, the outcome mentions fossil fuels, but it’s almost drowned out by how many qualifiers and loopholes it’s surrounded by to try allow for ongoing expansion of coal, oil and gas projects. 

2. NO FINANCE = No fossil fuel phase out
   The biggest issue is a lack of finance. The world simply cannot phase out fossil fuels if developing nations dependent on fossil fuels for basic services and livelihoods aren’t financially supported by wealthy nations. Unless this finance is unlocked, a global transition away from fossil fuels will not happen.⁠

3. NOT FAIR or equitable
   There is a huge lack of equity. For a transition to be just and equitable – and even possible – wealthy nations who have the capacity to transition first must move fastest, leaving more carbon budget for poorer nations to transition more gradually (still very quickly due to how limited the carbon budget is)

4. NOT FALSE SOLUTION FREE – promotes dangerous distractions direct from the fossil fuel industry playbook

   A record number of false solutions made it into the COP text. There’s an entire clause on “transition fuels” aiming to support fossil gas expansion, there’s paragraphs on carbon capture and storage, nuclear, “low-emission fuels” and abatement - all strategies used by the fossil fuel industry to delay action and justify expansion.

5. NOT FAST
   Uses “net zero by 2050” instead of aligning with 1.5ºC, leaving a door open for dodgy accounting, offsets and false solutions as well as distant targets and ongoing expansion

6. NOT BINDING
   We don’t just need to mention fossil fuels, we need a binding plan for phasing them out. This includes ending expansion, phasing out existing production, and financing a global just transition.

The UNFCCC’s consensus process will not be able to address these issues this on its own, there are too many blockers in the room. It must be complemented by a new treaty. There is a powerful, growing bloc of nations who were pushing for an equitable and financed fossil fuel phase out at COP28.

A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can create the mechanism fit for purpose for these visionary countries to move ahead without the blockers that put the breaks on a fossil fuel phase out at COP28. We need a framework explicitly designed to address the threat of fossil fuels, and manage a full, fast, fair and financed global phase out of coal, oil and gas.