Five Ways a Fossil Fuel Treaty Complements Existing Global Climate Agreements

From nuclear weapons to land mines and tobacco, throughout history countries have come together to address dire challenges requiring global cooperation through international treaties. Now it is oil, gas and coal that present the greatest threat to humanity and international cooperation through a new legally binding agreement that complements existing climate treaties by ending their proliferation is an imperative. 

For more than three decades, the world has recognized the need for multilateral climate commitments.  The impacts of climate change are global and no country can overcome the crisis alone. In 1992, nations agreed to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the mechanism to limit global warming and deal with unavoidable impacts. Three years later, countries started negotiations to strengthen the UNFCCC which led to the Kyoto Protocol with top-down, legally binding commitments for developed countries to reduce emissions and counter climate impacts. 

In 2015, the Paris Agreement came into effect, building on the foundation these existing climate treaties created. It incorporated a global goal to cut emissions to levels that would limit warming to between 1.5C and 2C. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement requires all countries to take emissions reduction measures but does so in a ‘bottom up’ manner, leaving it to countries to decide their own emissions reduction targets.

The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement have been signed on to by 198 and 195 country parties respectively, making them two of the most highly subscribed international treaties with near-universal participation. This is significant, as it sets common and transparent baselines for action. Both treaties also recognize the challenges with a just transition for fossil fuel dependent countries which is critical. 

At the same time, the high level of ambition needed to drive climate action on a scale commensurate with the problem has not been achieved due to the UNFCCC consensus process which allows fossil fuel producing nations to stall action and water down commitments. This big tent approach means there are more fossil fuel lobbyists participating in UNFCCC negotiations than delegates from the ten most climate vulnerable countries combined. 

This sheds light on why the Paris Agreement does not mention fossil fuels nor include the words oil, gas and coal. It does not include a mechanism for negotiating an equitable phase out and transition to low-carbon renewable energy from wind, sun, water and other sources. At COP28 in Dubai, for the first time countries agreed there is a need to transition away from fossil fuels, yet the decision text does not address the manner and timeline for doing so. Meanwhile, countries have plans to increase oil, gas and coal extraction to levels that would result in 110 percent more emissions than the amount that would limit warming to 1.5C. The lack of a legal framework to phase them out is making the goals of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement vastly out of reach given carbon emissions from fossil fuels are responsible for more than 85 percent of the warming problem. 

Let’s return to other global treaties. A major factor is why they worked is that they were negotiated in fora with majority decision-making, which allowed groups of high ambition countries forming  “coalitions of the willing” to push for more ambitious outcomes that avoided any single country being able to veto an outcome. The UNFCCC by contrast makes decisions by consensus. While this can be useful in setting a foundation for ambition, it means that all decisions are inherently a compromise and more ambitious positions are often unable to be advanced.

Now 16 first mover countries are calling for an official mandate to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. At the core are three key Fossil Fuel Treaty pillars. End the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, wind down existing production to safe levels and foster a fast and fair transition to low-carbon, renewable energy and other solutions in a way that leaves no worker, community or country behind.

This coalition of the willing approach is a perfect complement to the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement as the treaties combine to create a push-pull effect. The latter creates the floor for agreed upon action while the Fossil Fuel Treaty paves the way for higher levels of leadership in tackling oil, gas and coal production and the need to phase it out.

There are five specific ways in which a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty will complement existing climate treaties. 

First, it will address a policy and legal gap in the regulation of fossil fuel supply and the just transition in a way that is compatible with the goals of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement and goes beyond those obligations. 

Second, it will create a coalition of the willing approach that enables leading nation states to establish a framework for a just transition and coordinate and support others in the coalition while establishing new international norms to which non-party states can be held accountable and increase ambition within the UNFCCC.

Third, a Fossil Fuel Treaty will help codify existing international obligations relating to fossil fuels and establish new ones in a way that provides clarity and feeds into countries’ NDCs. 

Fourth, it will include provisions on just transition and economic diversification to help fossil fuel dependent developing countries transition away from fossil fuel dependence through alternative development pathways and enhancing wellbeing and economic prosperity. 

Fifth and finally, a Fossil Fuel Treaty will address fossil fuel supply in a holistic manner that goes beyond climate change to include health, sustainable development, human rights and peace and security benefits. 

Oil, gas and coal are the root cause of climate change. They also kill one in five people annually from fossil fuel air pollution, drive conflict, and stand in the way of all 17 UN Sustainable Development goals from gender equity to biodiversity. 

The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement are to be commended. And as with other climate treaties, they must be built on and made more impactful through the addition of complementary mechanisms like a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.