10 November 2023 – RAROTONGA – Earlier today, the Communique of the Pacific Island Forum Leader’s Meeting was released after leaders of Pacific nations convened on the remote atoll of Aitutaki. The statement was the 52nd of its kind but the first to explicitly call for a transition away from coal, oil and gas – the primary cause of the climate crisis threatening the very future of many Pacific Island nations. 

However, in last-minute discussions between governments, a number of qualifiers and loopholes were added. Despite a bloc of Pacific nations pushing for the Forum to “spearhead the global phase out of coal, oil and gas production” since March this year, the two fossil fuel producers – Australia and New Zealand – were able to weaken the final text to ensure it did not explicitly mention fossil fuel extraction and production. This ignores the stark warnings of a UN report released earlier this week finding governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030  than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Leaders "committed to a transition away from coal, oil & gas in our energy systems in line with the IPCC pathways for limiting global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees" and to "aspire to a just and equitable transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific acknowledging that the pathway is not immediate nor is it one size fits all."

The presence of Australia was notable, with watered-down text on Pacific energy systems, not Australian exports allowing the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter to continue approving new coal and gas extraction projects.

“Aspiring” rather than “committing” to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific was also a weasel word pushed by New Zealand after they first used the term in a recent cabinet paper released in September. The New Zealand government is currently considering canceling its ban on offshore drilling for oil and gas. 

Auimatagi Joe Moeono-Kolio, Chief Advisor, Pacific, of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said: “Let us be clear: while this statement is historic, it is tinged with a bitter-sweetness. For decades our leaders have called on our neighbour Australia, the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter, to stand with us. Yet it has taken some 30-odd years to drag Australia to the table and finally acknowledge that it is long past time to transition away from fossil fuels, even though they still insist on adding qualifiers to water down any text on the topic. 

Today’s decision from our leaders will increase the pressure on Australia and New Zealand to cancel their plans for new coal and gas projects and offshore exploration. If they’re not committing to a science-aligned plan to phase out their fossil fuel exports, they are failing us. These demands will only grow louder. Australia aims to host COP31 and currently has the Pacific “seal of approval” – if they want to keep it, it’s time for them to listen to us more than coal and gas lobbyists.”

Lavatenalagi Seru, Regional Coordinator for the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN) said: “Pacific leaders have missed an opportunity to demonstrate genuine commitment instead, opting for an ‘aspirational’ rhetoric. Australia’s newly signed pact with Tuvalu is a mere band-aid solution that in no way adequately addresses the fossil-fuelled climate crisis. Australia must understand that the only real solution to stop the destruction of Pacific homes is to stop the expansion of its fossil fuel industry, end all fossil fuel subsidies, and support the climate frontline countries and communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change."

The process toward this Communique mentioning fossil fuels began earlier this year in March when Ministers and officials from a block of six Pacific countries – Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, Niue, and the Solomon Islands – negotiated the “Port Vila Call for a Just Transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific”. Their statement, went much further than the Leaders’ communique, committing to “spearhead the global phase out of coal, oil and gas production”, “end to fossil fuel expansion” and manage an “equitable phase out of fossil fuels”. 

While leaders meeting at Rarotonga rejected many of the core recommendations of the Port Vila Call, they did agree to establish a regional “Energy Commissioner for a Just Transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific”.

In the months leading up to the Leader’s Meeting, the call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific gained support at multiple pre-PIF Ministerial Meetings including the Forum Economic Ministers Meeting (FEMM), Pacific Regional Energy and Transport Ministers' Meeting (PRETMM) and the Melanesian Spearhead Group Leader’s Summit. 

Attention now turns to COP28 in Dubai later this month, where governments will face significant pressure to commit to a global plan to phase out coal, oil and gas production. Pacific states will not be alone in the negotiations, with a similar statement made by the Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) who made it clear that a COP28 decision should not imply acceptance of fossil fuel expansion, which is incompatible with the 1.5 degree limit. Recently the High Ambition Coalition also released a powerful statement that included a reinforcing call for governments to “phase out fossil fuel production”. 

Tzeporah Berman, Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said “Fossil fuel producers must not only acknowledge the importance of a just and equitable transition from oil, gas and coal with words in declarations but they must actually stop expanding fossil fuels now. Pacific Island nations are spearheading this effort with their support for the negotiation of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

Pacific Island nations have been at the forefront of climate policy for decades and played a critical role in securing the goal of limiting 1.5ºC in the Paris Agreement. They have now built on this history by setting the bar for true climate leadership ahead of COP28 – with many Pacific states planning to take their proposal for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to other nations meeting at the UN Climate Talks at the end of the month. They were recently joined by two other island nations - Antigua and Barbuda and Timor-Leste - who have joined the growing bloc of nation-states seeking a negotiating mandate for a new international framework to manage a global just transition away from coal, oil and gas.