The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative’s political, campaigns and communications teams have been engaging with policymakers, media and civil society across Africa to grow the public and political support for the Fossil Fuel Treaty proposal across the continent.

According to the Independent Expert Group on Just Transition and Development, as the world grapples with the transition away from fossil fuels there are risks, uncertainties and opportunities for Africa: “without renewal of its strategic vision, the continent will remain a site of contestation by other global powers seeking to control its resources, markets and institutions. Change, at the same time, provides opportunities for Africa to control its own future.” The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative and its partners are keen to support African experts to explore visions and opportunities for a Just Transition away from oil, gas and coal, breaking free from the externally imposed ‘traps’ of fossil fuel dependence.

The Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty Initiative seeks to commission an African research team to develop a study to envision, investigate and explore opportunities to replace fossil fuel revenues in 2-3 countries in, either Southern, Eastern or Western Africa, with a preference for the following: Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda and/or Zambia.

The ultimate purpose will be to provide evidence to African governments, and their advisors and financiers (including multi- and bi- lateral organisations), of the possibilities of economic diversification that enables both fossil fuels to be phased out without compromising on development and energy security for their constituents.

The research should take place between Oct 2024 - April 2025, with a report launch in May or June 2025. We are also keen to explore opportunities to share research insights around the African Union summit in February 2024.

Background and Rationale

After almost three decades of climate negotiations, the need to transition away from fossil fuels was finally acknowledged in the decision text at COP28. Despite this, many governments are still approving new coal, oil and gas projects — even as we crash past the 1.5 C degrees global warming limit.

All countries must phase out fossil fuel extraction as quickly as possible, but this must be done in a way which is equitable, acknowledging the historical and colonial power dynamics that have created and emboldened fossil fuel dependencies. A growing bloc of 13 countries are seeking a negotiating mandate for building a Fossil Fuel Treaty: a plan to end the expansion of new coal, oil and gas projects and manage a global just transition away from fossil fuels. This would complement the Paris Agreement by providing the global roadmap to manage an equitable phase out of fossil fuels, laying the groundwork for a just energy transition in which no worker, community or country is left behind.

The Just Transition Africa Report tells us that African countries - particularly as a result of historical marginalisation driven by colonial extractivism and a deeply unfair global political economy - suffer from at least three major structural economic deficiencies: the lack of food sovereignty, lack of energy sovereignty, and the low value-added content of exports relative to imports. These contribute to structural trade deficits, weakened African currencies and a pressure to issue debt denominated in foreign currencies (typically U.S. dollars) with increased and perpetual indebtedness as a result. Many of the policies promoted to African decisionmakers have not resulted in alleviation of these challenges, especially not in terms of ensuring energy independence and access for all.

As a result, countries across Africa face many structural barriers to the energy transition. Africa is the continent endowed with the largest share of the Earth’s renewable energy potential, home to 60% of the world’s best solar resources and 39% of global renewable energy potential. Yet this potential remains largely untapped, as the continent has just 1% of the world’s installed solar capacity and has received only 2% of global renewable energy investments in the past two decades.

African countries not only face deeply unfair costs of capital investment into transition energies and infrastructures but worsening debt burdens, pushing them further into a cycle of climate vulnerability and political-economic marginalisation. For some, it is hard to imagine a path away from fossil fuels, particularly in terms of key public service revenues. According to Carbon Tracker, seven African (Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Angola, and Chad) countries depend on oil or gas for between 62 - 98% of government revenues; and more than half of African oil and gas producing countries rely on oil and gas exports for more than 50% of their total export revenues. Coal is also a fossil fuel that a number of countries are currently dependent on in the continent, particularly South Africa, where it accounts for 72% of energy needs. And while only 25% of it is exported, export sales accounted for one-quarter in volume representing 40% in revenue terms, highlighting the importance of exports to the value chain’s profitability.

Today, oil revenues are starting to show signs of a bust: recent analysis demonstrates that, “Despite oil prices being high since 2021, most major African oil producers are not experiencing a boom. In the short term, this is affecting their fiscal positions. Longer term, it will reduce their access to the financial resources required to undertake development projects and transition to low-emissions economies”. Indeed, Africa not only faces infrastructural constraints to oil and gas development, but demand for African oil imports from Asia and the Americas are shrinking, due to the growth of crude oil from the US and Guyana, and as other countries transition their economies to renewable energy. A study by McKinsey shows African gas and oil fields are 15-20% more expensive to develop and up to 80% more carbon-intensive than other fields globally.

The Just Transition Africa report emphasises that many of the policy solutions, including the promotion of coal, oil and gas development are “in fact, structural traps. These traps are further amplified through a global race to the bottom where African and other developing countries are forced into lowering labour and environmental standards, more regulatory and fiscal concessions to foreign investors, and ever more dependence on the Global North”. One of these traps is the expansion of fossil fuel extraction for export markets and the locking in of fossil fuels in domestic energy systems, which ensure further climate impacts and risk becoming stranded assets.

Despite the clear need and opportunity to transition from oil, gas and coal to renewables across the continent, investment trends are putting Africa at a disadvantage. The IEA says 60% of energy investment still went to fossil fuels in 2021, with total annual energy investment around $90 billion; and yet less than 2% of investment into renewable energy between 2010-2020 went to African nations. Annual fossil fuel investment is 6-7 times greater than in renewables.

According to a coalition of African civil society organisations, exploring who funds fossil fuel expansion in Africa: “In 48 out of 55 African nations, oil, gas and coal companies are either exploring or developing new fossil reserves, building new fossil infrastructure such as pipelines or liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals or developing new gas- and coal fired power plants. These enormous fossil expansion plans are completely incompatible with the Paris goals and will lock African countries into an obsolete and and carbon-heavy energy path.” Despite decades of fossil fuel extraction, Africa remains the most energy poor continent on earth - in terms of access rather than resources. This indicates a need to shift the paradigm underpinning energy planning and investment in the continent.

Further - European governments have joined multinational fossil fuel companies in a dash for gas in Africa. They are rushing to explore, extract, and export fossil gas from the continent into international markets to bridge the shortfall of Russian gas in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and to profit off high commodity prices. Sensing the opportunity to take advantage of global gas prices, develop African gas infrastructure, and establish new export markets, African leaders and elites legitimise a huge expansion in gas extraction through a vision of climate justice and economic prosperity. However this will lock the continent into a fossil gas future, for the ultimate benefit of Europe and other distant geographies, whilst driving the risk of massive stranded assets at home as the world inevitably transitions away from fossil fuels. African economies face serious risks of future stranded assets, as climate policies progress: currently about US$245 billion of gas investments on stream until 2030 are at risk of becoming stranded assets, even if minimal efforts are taken towards climate change. Some analysis suggests that as much as 71% of oil and gas projects in Africa are at risk of becoming stranded assets.

African countries need support to envisage and plan out the transition away from fossil fuels; especially to replace the dependency on fossil fuels for public service revenues. There are currently no substantive proposals from multilaterals, bi-lateral donors and philanthropists that will enable this to happen. Some of the most popular projects and mechanisms being touted by these stakeholders - for example “Just Energy Transition Partnerships” do not address anything near the finances needed to replace fossil fuel revenues. As calls for a Fossil Fuel Treaty grow, countries are increasingly keen to explore change visions and prosperous alternatives for a fossil fuel free economy, rooted in evidence. Further, how these changes can be supported and accelerated by states negotiating a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty. This research will address both.

Team and Methodology 

The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative is conscious of the colonial and patriarchal power dynamics that continue to affect the production of knowledge on climate change in Africa. Therefore this research TOR includes a few key parameters, but we are open to the vision of proposing teams. They include:

• At least 80% of the team must be African or of the African Diaspora.

• The team must include at least 50% women.

• The team should not be limited to economists. To address a multi-faceted problem steeped in global power, a range of research lenses will be important. These can include perspectives from economics, political science, geography, gender and feminist studies, post-colonial and decolonial scholarship, law, development studies and anthropology.

• The methodology should include some degree of both quantitative and qualitative methods.

• The methodology should include some process of analytical discussion and reflection with the treaty initiative team, especially our Africa Regional experts and our Policy and Politics team, especially on determining recommendations from the project.

Application Process

To limit the risks of extraction in the application process, the Treaty Initiative is open to teams’ preferred approach to describing the proposed project. This may be in a written format or an audio-visual format and in English, French or Portuguese.

Please include reference to the following:

1. Team composition, experience and interest in this work and the Treaty initiative.

2. Vision for the work - in terms of research impact (politically, socially and in terms of a treaty itself). iii) Methodology with a proposed timeline.

3. Proposed Project Outputs, which must include but do not need to be limited to:

   • in depth country analyses and case studies;

   • an overall report of 20-40 pages, written for a non-academic audience (policy, civil society and/or business)

   • Ideas for socialising the findings in country, which may include: events and consultations; multimedia products, media briefings

4. A simple budget breakdown according to costs of particular activities and team member’s time. v) How you would like to engage with the treaty team (and/or the network) in the process.

5. A brief description or illustration of the relevant experience of team members, including reference to any projects, reports or other outputs related to research and evidence.

Available Budget

There is up to 52,000 USD available for the research and development of the report drafts (not design, which can be funded from a different pot). Please account for any exchange rate losses from USD into other currencies in the budget planning.

Please submit your application to: Amiera@FossilFuelTreaty.org by end of 7 October 2024.