24 October 2023 - One month ahead of COP28, the latest edition of the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook (WEO) reveals that the global energy landscape will be significantly reshaped by 2030. For the first time, the annual report - the world's most authoritative source of energy analysis and projections - shows that this decade will be marked not only by an increased role of renewables, which will account for almost half of the global energy mix, but also by peaks in demand for oil, gas and coal, reinforcing the imperative to phase out fossil fuels, both for the sake of the global economy and the climate.

Based on a detailed analysis of current government policies around the world, WEO's scenarios offer hope, with key findings demonstrating a clear shift towards renewable energies worldwide, particularly solar power. However, they also highlight that investment in renewables alone will not be sufficient, for two main reasons:

1. Demand for fossil fuels will peak sooner than expected: Contrary to recent OPEC claims that halting the expansion of fossil fuel production "could lead to energy and economic chaos", the WEO shows that demand for oil, gas and coal will peak earlier than expected, with the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply falling from 80% to 73% by 2030, a decline that will also affect countries such as China, which play a major role in global energy economic trends. Consequently, investments in new fossil fuel production or infrastructure run the risk of creating a supply gut and becoming stranded assets.

2. Phasing out fossil fuels is inevitable to keep the 1.5 standard alive: even if, due to falling demand for fossil fuels, global energy-related CO2 emissions peak by 2025, global emissions will remain high enough to raise average global temperatures by around 2.4°C by the end of the century, well above the limit set in the Paris Agreement.

Amiera Sawas, Head of Research for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative, said: “This WEO report once again undermines the argument according to which continued fossil fuel production is compatible with, or even necessary for, the global energy transition. For both economic and climatic reasons, phasing out fossil fuels is a necessary element of the inevitable transition. The IEA's Executive Director himself asserts that it's no longer a question of "if" but of "how". This is why it is necessary for governments to adopt a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, i.e. a plan to redouble international cooperation efforts to: keep 1.5 alive, prevent the economic impacts of the upcoming global energy mix, and support communities most dependent on fossil fuel production. This new report provides more scientific proof and guidance to decision-makers who will be meeting next month at COP28 in Dubai, as climate disasters continue to escalate. It's time for the international community as a whole to follow the leadership of the 8 countries that already support the Fossil Fuel Treaty proposal, the legal mechanism that will enable us to transform the transition into an opportunity for a safe, sustainable and fair future for all.“