Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting Report

This paper examines Commonwealth countries' historical and potential future development of fossil fuel production, contextualising those developments in terms of associated CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and the relative importance and risk of those developments to the producing Commonwealth country. We find that:

Historically, upper- and upper- middle-income countries in the Commonwealth have dominated the production of fossil fuels, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the grouping’s fossil fuel extraction emissions since 1990.

Of this, the “Big Three” (the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada) have historically accounted for over 60% of emissions embedded in fossil fuel extraction in the Commonwealth countries. However, they represent just six per cent of these countries' populations.

This trend continues with oil and gas projects under development, with upper- and upper-middle-income Commonwealth countries accounting for over 70% of emissions in new projects.  This is consistent with economic trends globally.  

Despite this, the wealthiest Commonwealth countries are the least dependent upon economic rents generated from the extraction of fossil fuels, with rents in the UK, Australia and Canada representing less than 2% of GDP compared to Commonwealth countries that have contributed far less to climate change as a result of fossil fuel extraction but face greater economic challenges due to their higher dependence on oil rents, e.g.  5% in Malaysia, 7% in Nigeria and Papua New Guinea, and 11% in Trinidad and Tobago.