COP28 sends signal on fossil fuels, strengthening call for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty

December 13th, 2023 - Dubai – After a long battle over the final text, climate negotiations came to an end at COP28, with a weak outcome on transitioning away from fossil fuels - the main cause of the climate crisis and the biggest issue of this COP. Due to the barriers to negotiating and financing a fossil fuel phase out within the UNFCCC, a strong movement has gained momentum, with 12 nations calling for the negotiation of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, 4 of them endorsing the proposal here in Dubai - Palau, Colombia, Samoa and Nauru.

Alex Rafalowicz, Executive Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, said: "Having the words 'fossil fuels' in the text is an important political signal, but it's a far cry from the 'historic' outcome we were all calling for - it is the weakest we could have gotten, it has all the intentionally vague words planted to deceive us, and it is still very reliant on all the unproven technologies we must avoid. Those most responsible for the climate crisis did not bring finance, technology, or actions to start phasing out fossil fuels, instead they brought hollow hypocrisy that poisoned the talks just as they are poisoning life on Earth. The vested interests of a few did everything they could to drown out the voices of people and science. OPEC said this would be an irreversible tipping point, and it will be. The record number of fossil fuel lobbyists at this COP was proof that the industry is desperate to defend their interests at the expense of life. They're merchants of death, but their days are numbered - and they know it."

While the UNFCCC will continue to be a critical forum to negotiate international climate policy, this COP outcome is a clear sign that this process is not fit for the purpose of managing and financing an equitable transition away from oil, gas and coal, and that it must be urgently complemented by a new international mechanism explicitly focussed on phasing out fossil fuels - a Fossil Fuel Treaty. 

"For 30 years this process has failed to face up to the core driver of the climate crisis, today that changes, but only because the people on the front lines held the line for the rest of humanity. There was a significant number of governments pushing for science-based fossil fuel phase out and for a true just transition package with finance and equity at the core. The fact that these countries could not breakthrough because of the consensus based process demonstrates the inability of the UNFCCC to really deal with the urgency and the source of this crisis. That is why we need a complementary, non-consensus based process like a Fossil Fuel Treaty, that allows those countries to come together to negotiate and to actually accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels signaled in this agreement," highlighted Alex.

A growing bloc formed by Antigua & Barbuda, Colombia, Fiji, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu is spearheading an effort to secure a mandate to negotiate a new international mechanism to manage a phase out of fossil fuels, and finance a just and equitable global transition away from the deadly grip of oil, gas and coal.

Auimatagi Joe Moeono-Kolio Chief Pacific Advisor of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said: "After 30 years of climate talks, the COP28 outcome finally mentioned fossil fuels but fell short setting a clear plan to phase them out. The bar is so low now that we are expected to applaud incremental gains from this low altitude flying, low ambition COP presidency. Small Island States from the Pacific and across the world pushed relentlessly for a science-based fossil fuel phase-out and a genuine just transition package with finance and equity at its core. The fact that they could not break through the consensus-based framework of the UNFCCC emphasises the need for a new process that can complement this process, a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. It will allow nations committed to real climate action to negotiate and implement the transition away from fossil fuels in a way that is not just far, but also fair.”

Along with the governments, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty proposal is also supported by the World Health Organization, the European Parliament, 101 Nobel Laureates, 600+ parliamentarians in 83 countries,  2,100 civil society organisations, 3,000 scientists and academics and over 90 cities and subnational governments, including most recently the State of California, the fifth largest economy in the world, and 9 Peruvian Indigenous Nations. 

Statements from government officials at COP28 calling for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to manage a just transition away from oil, gas and coal: 

Gustavo Petro, President of Colombia, in his speech at the High-Level Party Event organised by the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, when announcing Colombia's endorsement at the beginning of COP28: "It is a paradox that, at this table, together with populations that could disappear, there is a country like us, which also depends on oil, and which is committed to endorsing a treaty that implies zero new exploration projects in the world. My own society would say 'how would the President produce such economic suicide?', given that we depend on oil and coal. But this is not economic suicide. We are talking here about an 'omnicide', the risk of extinction of life on the planet. Here we are avoiding 'omnicide' on planet Earth. There is no other way, the rest are illusions. There is a very powerful economic power around oil, coal and gas. And they act to prevent changes, to maintain, in a suicidal way, their possibilities for more years of profit in the short term. Today we face an immense confrontation between fossil capital and human life. And we must choose a side. Any human being knows that we must choose life. I have no doubt which position to take: between fossil capital and life, we choose the side of life."

Ralph Regenvanu, Minister of Climate Change, Energy, Environment, Meteorology, Geohazards and Disaster Management of Vanuatu: “We, the Small Island States, are showing the world that we punch above our weight when it comes to international climate diplomacy. [...] There is simply far more fossil fuels in the Earth’s crust than we can ever burn and as we deploy renewable energy at a speed and intensity that allows us to supply clean energy for all, it would be unacceptable for fossil fuel producers to respond by continuing to increase production to defend their market share. Peaking emissions before 2025 and nearly halving them by 2030, which the IPCC says is required to remain within the 1.5 degree temperature limit – which the Pacific fought for in Paris – means making all fossil fuel producers uncomfortable. This Treaty provides a means to enable international cooperation to phase out fossil fuels."

Gaston Brown, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda: “As Prime Minister of one of the most vulnerable small island states globally, the message is clear. We are at a crossroad in history and facing a monumental choice that will define the trajectory of our planet – the call for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. We're not merely witnessing the side effects of the industrial age, we are confronting the sobering reality of a planet in peril. Literally a planet on fire. A planet that these large polluters are literally burning to the ground. This treaty is not an indictment of progress, rather, it is an acknowledgement that our current trajectory is unsustainable and therefore we must act. And act now. It is a commitment to break free from fossil fuel addiction that has fueled the economies at the expense of the environment. And we cannot continue to sustain a global culture in which profits are given priority over people and the planet.” 

Surangel Whipps Jr., President of Palau, said in his high-level statement at COP28: “Our ocean feeds us, protects us, and defines us. We must protect it in return. We are witnessing the consequences of ignoring the planet's limits—floods, droughts, heat, famine, death. The solution to the climate crisis requires everyone’s participation. Today, Palau joins Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and other nations in calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. We are sovereign countries, however we share one planet. We are stronger together, and we must unite, act and deliver to keep 1.5ºC alive!”

Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, Samoa’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environment: “For myself, and also for Samoa, we see this as a very important initiative, and we do want to join. This is important. If we’re going to talk about a transition and a fossil fuel phase out this is a mechanism we need. We will join this initiative and we want to continue to advocate in ways that provide the mechanism so that we can continue to have space that will enable us to really put words into actions.”

Reagan Moses, Secretary for Climate Change and National Resilience of Nauru, In his National Statement at the High Level Plenary of COP28: “We are ready to do our part in making the Pacific a fossil fuel-free zone. In this regard, Nauru would like to use this opportunity to join others in calling for a treaty to phase out fossil fuel production.” Moses also highlighted the importance of financing a Just Transition in the most vulnerable countries: "As Ministers and negotiators review the draft decisions over the course of this week, there is an easy way to determine the value we place as a global community on addressing climate change. Just look at the finance. All of our vision - all of our political will - amounts to very little if those who hold the purse strings fail to deliver on finance." 

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General at a High-Level Party Event at COP28: “The devastating effects of air pollution resulting from these emissions claim the lives of over seven million people each year. In full support of your call for a fossil fuel treaty, the World Health Organization stands united with you. Various organizations advocating for robust climate action including the phasing out of the use of fossil fuels. So in the health sector, you already have 50 million champions. The objectives outlined in the proposed treaty are clear, evidence based and equitable. A rapid phase out of fossil fuels is imperative to safeguard island nations, protect the integrity of our planet, and protect the health and well-being of all.”